ForestPaths partners from the Technical University of Munich and Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) collaborated with an international research team on a new study published in Science. The study looks at how disturbances such as wildfires, bark beetle outbreaks, and windstorms might change across European forests over the 21st century.

The researchers developed a deep learning-based modeling framework, simulating disturbance patterns across 187 million hectares of forest at high spatial resolution. The results suggest that disturbance levels will likely exceed anything recorded in recent decades, regardless of climate scenario. Under persistent climate change, the affected area could more than double by the end of the century.

Of the three disturbance types, wildfire showed the greatest sensitivity to climate change. Impacts are most pronounced in the Mediterranean, but the study also projects fire risk expanding into temperate and boreal regions. Vegetation changes over time can partially offset disturbance increases - though not enough to fully counteract them. 

These changes are projected to alter the age structure of Europe's forests, with young forests becoming more prevalent and old forests declining. This has implications for biodiversity and carbon storage, including for the use of forests as nature-based climate solutions.

The authors note that while an increase in disturbance appears inevitable, reducing greenhouse gas emissions is still one of the most effective ways to limit future risk to Europe's forests.

Read the full study.

Read the EFI policy brief based on the study.