A research team from the University of Edinburgh (Scotland), the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Germany), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA), led by ForestPaths researchers, published a new paper titled “Response of Global Forest Management to Changes in Wood Demand” in the Global Change Biology journal. The study projects how global wood demand, harvests and forest management intensity could change under different socioeconomic and climate scenarios throughout the 21st century. 

The authors used a spatially detailed, process-based land-use model called LandSyMM, which combines a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) with a global land-use model (PLUM). Wood demand was modelled for each country using a price-elastic system that captures how demand for industrial roundwood and wood fuel responds to changes in countries’ income and wood market prices. 

The results show major differences in future wood harvests and forest management intensity depending on the scenario. By 2100, global wood demand is expected to increase by between 27% (SSP1–RCP2.6) and 102% (SSP3–RCP7.0). The main factors contributing to this growth are economic and population increases, with Africa and Asia accounting for most of the global rise in demand (89%). The study suggests that higher wood demand will primarily be met through intensification of forest management and productivity gains associated with climate change and CO₂ fertilisation, rather than through expansion of forest area. Across all scenarios, wood prices are expected to peak around 2050 - first increasing with higher demand and management expenses and then declining in high-emission scenarios as higher CO₂ levels boost forest growth. 

The researchers conclude that understanding how global forest management adapts to rising wood demand, and how this will affect forest structure, species composition and carbon storage, is important for effectively addressing climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. 

Read the full study here.