A research team led by ForestPaths researchers has published a paper in the Journal of Cleaner Production titled “Decarbonizing the cement industry: Findings from coupling prospective life cycle assessment of clinker with integrated assessment model scenarios.” The study brought together scientists from Leiden University, the Flemish Institute for Technology Research (VITO), the German Aerospace Center (DLR), the Paul Scherrer Institute, the University of Antwerp, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, and Delft University of Technology. 

The paper looks into how global clinker production - the most carbon-intensive stage of cement manufacturing - could evolve under different climate scenarios up to 2060. Using prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) combined with the IMAGE integrated assessment model (IAM), the authors simulated the future environmental impacts of the cement sector. By combining the ecoinvent v3.9.1 database with expected developments in other major industrial sectors, they modelled three possible pathways: a 3.5 °C baseline, a 2 °C-compliant and a 1.5 °C-compliant scenario. 

The results show that average global emissions from clinker production could decrease by 10%, 81% and 84% between 2020 and 2060, depending on the pathway. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are behind most of these reductions, requiring a roll-out of CCS plants that significantly surpasses the industry's own projections. However, even under such conditions, global clinker production alone would still consume 5–11% of the remaining end-of-century carbon budget. Residual emissions would persist, mainly from already existing kilns. The study also identifies environmental trade-offs: while carbon emissions might decline, other pressures - such as ionising radiation, ozone depletion and the use of land and material resources - would increase due to burden shifts.  

The authors conclude that achieving net-zero clinker production by 2060 is unlikely solely through pathways focused on production. They point out the need for broader, system-wide mitigation strategies, including reuse, alternative binders, clinker substitution and improved material efficiency. Such measures are important for reducing dependence on CCS and minimising new environmental burdens created by the transition itself. 

Read the full study here.