A ForestPaths paper, written by partner CMCC, examines how EU member states plan to use natural climate solutions in the land sector to meet climate targets outlined in their long-term strategies (LTSs). With the land sector accounting for roughly 17.5% of total EU emissions and the LULUCF sink needing to nearly double to achieve net-zero by 2050, the study evaluates whether the mitigation potential of forests, wetlands, grasslands and agricultural lands is fully realised. It highlights the urgent need for coherent, well-planned land-based actions to enhance carbon storage, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support the EU’s 2030 and 2050 climate objectives. 

The study analysed EU member states’ long-term strategies (LTSs) to identify proposed natural climate solutions in the land sector and assessed whether their mitigation potential is fully utilised. Researchers collected only solutions with clearly defined actions or expected benefits, then quantified their mitigation potential using the comprehensive assessment by Roe et al., which provides country-level CO2eq estimates for 20 natural climate solutions. Solutions irrelevant to Europe or with negligible impact were excluded. The mitigation potential was converted into a five-level score reflecting relative impact for each country, allowing comparison between solutions included in the LTSs and those not mentioned, highlighting gaps in planning and opportunities to enhance carbon storage and greenhouse gas reductions. 

Results showed that over 90% of countries recognise the importance of such solutions across forests, agriculture and demand-side measures, but implementation often underutilises their potential. Key opportunities include expanding agroforestry, improving forest management beyond biomass accumulation, promoting reforestation and afforestation, restoring peatlands and reducing food waste through demand-side measures. Mitigation potential scores, based on technical feasibility, highlight where countries could enhance their strategies, though economic, social and environmental constraints may limit practical implementation. Overall, the study suggests that prioritising high-impact solutions and revising national strategies could substantially strengthen the EU’s path toward climate neutrality.  

Read the full study here.